Probability of Profit (POP) Calculator

Probability of profit estimates the chance a trade is profitable at expiration. For a short put, that means the stock finishing above the break-even price, not just above the strike.

The calculator uses the Black-Scholes N(d2) term with your implied volatility and shows the expected price distribution at expiration. Model probabilities assume a log-normal distribution; real markets have larger moves more often than the model expects.

Results are educational estimates from standard formulas, not investment advice. Live prices, fees and your broker's rules can change the outcome.